AGP Executive Report

Botswana–Oman Deal Flow: His Majesty Sultan Haitham bin Tarik met President Duma Gideon Boko in Gaborone and the two sides signed nine agreements and MoUs covering visa-free diplomatic travel, air services, investment promotion, medicines security and pharmaceutical supply, plus energy security and regional energy development—aimed at deepening cooperation across mining, renewables, logistics, food security and agriculture. Diamond Hub Visit: The Sultan also toured Botswana’s Diamond Hub in Gaborone, getting briefed on sorting and evaluation stages and the facility’s push to add value in the diamond sector. Energy Security Push: Botswana Power Corporation says local production now meets 86% of national electricity needs (up from 67% a year earlier), with rooftop solar scaling to 75MW (30MW already operating) under its 2026–2031 strategy. S&P Rating Watch: S&P kept Botswana’s investment-grade ratings (BBB-/A-3) but maintained a negative outlook, warning weak diamond demand could keep pressuring growth, exports and fiscal receipts. Hemp Industry Bankability: CEDA urged Botswana’s emerging hemp sector to build citizen-owned, bankable businesses with clear regulation and accessible markets—not just new production.

Retail & Consumer Demand: Choppies warns Namibia-linked profit pressure and weaker consumer liquidity in Botswana, with FY2026 profit after tax from continuing operations seen down 46%–56%. Shipping & Logistics: Grindrod’s Walvis Bay terminal in Namibia posted a 162% jump in drybulk volumes in H1 2026, while the group expects moderate SADC growth supported by mining, energy and agriculture. Sovereign Credit Watch: S&P kept Botswana’s investment-grade rating (BBB-/A-3) but maintained a negative outlook, citing weak diamond demand and risks to fiscal receipts and debt. Energy Security: Botswana Power Corporation says local production now meets 86% of electricity needs in Q1 2026/27, helped by rooftop solar expansion to 75 MW (30 MW installed). Diamonds & Value Addition: Oman’s Sultan Haitham visited Botswana’s Diamond Hub in Gaborone, touring sorting and evaluation operations as the country pushes added value in mining. Oman–Botswana Deals: Oman and Botswana signed multiple agreements and MoUs covering visa waivers, air services, investment promotion, medicines security, energy and mineral exploration cooperation. Hemp Industry Finance: CEDA urged that Botswana’s emerging hemp sector must build bankable, citizen-owned businesses with clear regulation and accessible markets—not just new production. Mining Exploration Update: Serval Resources says surveys on Botswana’s Kalahari Copper Belt prospects are progressing, with data processing underway and follow-up targets expected end-October. Tourism Experience Push: Cresta Mowana opened Ku Muzi Boma in Chobe to encourage longer stays, adding cultural dining, music and storytelling to the visitor mix. Regional Health Sovereignty: A SADC–China–UNAIDS framework aims to decentralise drug production across Southern Africa to reduce import dependence.

Oman–Botswana Deal-Making: His Majesty Sultan Haitham’s state visit is driving fresh cooperation with talks covering renewable energy, mining, investment, logistics, food security and agriculture, plus MoUs on air services, investment promotion and visa-free travel for diplomats. Battery Minerals Processing: Botswana approved a $140m plant set to become Southern Africa’s first integrated battery-minerals chemicals complex, with Kemcore targeting financing by Dec 2026 and first production in H1 2028. FMD Pressure on Livestock: Botswana’s foot-and-mouth disease response is under fire as farmers and political parties clash over command centres and practical support, while the cattle herd shrank 6.1% (2015–2025) amid rising deaths and fewer births. Mining Governance Watch: Botswana’s BETP mid-year review is criticised for listing reforms but showing limited proof of completed outcomes like jobs and livelihoods. Natural Diamonds, Sustainability Push: Botswana joined regional partners in signing the Beijing Declaration on natural diamonds and sustainable development, aiming to deepen China-Africa diamond cooperation. Credit Rating Update: Botswana passed its first credit rating test as Moody’s assessment is expected soon. Fuel Retail Competition: Botswana’s regulator cleared Ramachandran Ottapathu’s Engen Botswana purchase but requires divestment of 67 stations and strict separation rules.

Battery minerals push: Kemcore won environmental clearance for a ~$140m Botswana chemicals plant to supply copper and cobalt mines in the DRC and Zambia, targeting financial close by Dec 2026, construction in 2027 and first production in H1 2028, with projected output of 150,000 tonnes of battery-mineral reagents annually. Renewables and investment diplomacy: Oman’s Sultan Haitham met Botswana President Duma Boko and officials, with talks focused on renewable energy, mining, investment, logistics and food security, following an Oman-Botswana renewable energy cooperation push. Energy infrastructure debate: A new discussion piece highlights independent power transmission as a way to unlock renewable generation by easing grid bottlenecks across Africa. Mining exploration: One Bullion completed its first 2026 drill hole at the Vumba Gold Project (380m) and is moving to the next hole as it advances its ~3,000m program. Agriculture pressure: Botswana’s cattle herd fell 6.1% from 2015 to 2025 as deaths rose and births declined, adding strain to the beef base. FMD politics: The Botswana Congress Party and beef producers renewed calls to scrap or overhaul FMD command centres, arguing resources are being wasted while farmers need practical support. Governance scrutiny: The BETP mid-year scorecard is criticised for listing reforms and structures but offering limited proof of delivery on jobs and livelihoods. Consumer alert: Woolworths’ WBeauty clarifying shampoo was recalled after Pluralibacter gergoviae was detected, with a COMESA alert extending vigilance across the region. Business growth push: Trade ministry officials urged entrepreneurs to bring bankers into expansion plans early to build firms that can compete beyond Botswana.

Credit & Diamonds: Botswana’s credit rating review is in focus after S&P affirmed BBB- and kept a negative outlook, citing continued weakness in the global diamond market and knock-on effects for the economy. Business Expansion: Trade officials urged entrepreneurs to bring bankers into expansion plans early and build firms that can compete beyond Botswana’s borders, as Stanbic Bank highlighted support through insight, networks and expertise. Fuel Retail M&A: Botswana’s Competition and Consumer Authority cleared Ramachandran Ottapathu’s planned Engen Botswana acquisition, but only if he sells 67 stations and meets strict local ownership and independence conditions. Energy Transition: The World Bank warned fossil-fuel exporters that reliance on oil and gas revenues is becoming unsustainable, pushing the need for diversification and stronger fiscal management. Regional Consumer Safety: Woolworths’ WBeauty Complete Clarifying Shampoo recall has expanded via a COMESA alert after Pluralibacter gergoviae was detected, with Botswana among export destinations. Diplomacy & Investment: His Majesty Sultan Haitham’s two-day state visit to Botswana is framed as a push for wider economic and investment cooperation, building on renewable energy and other sector agreements. Health Cooperation: India dispatched 10 tonnes of HIV/AIDS anti-retroviral medicines to Botswana to support treatment systems. Tourism & Skills: Singita’s tourism investment progress was reviewed in Mozambique, while Botswana-linked healthcare research featured at a major university fall expo.

Botswana–Oman Deal Push: Botswana officials say Sultan Haitham bin Tarik’s state visit is set to move ties with Oman from groundwork to wider economic and investment cooperation, building on renewable energy work including a major solar plant in Maun and broader links in mining, energy and petroleum storage. HIV/AIDS Supply: India has dispatched 10 tonnes of anti-retroviral medicines to support Botswana’s public health HIV/AIDS response. Corporate Governance Debate: A new opinion piece argues that “independent” non-executive directors can still fail in practice if they don’t challenge management, even when they meet formal independence rules. Regional Value Addition: At the Agagu memorial lecture, Mokgweetsi Masisi joined calls for Africa to retain more value from natural resources through better governance and industrial value addition. Inflation Watch: The Bank of Botswana forecasts inflation staying above target for much of late 2026 into early 2027, pressured by fuel, transport and electricity costs. Medical AI Partnership: OpenEvidence and Penn Medicine will extend AI clinical decision support to Botswana via the Botswana-UPenn Partnership, aiming to tailor tools to local clinical workflows.

Dangote Refinery IPO Fever: Aliko Dangote says his Nigerian refinery’s N2.15tn IPO is a historic Africa milestone, with investors rushing in—over N10bn subscribed within minutes and the offer targeting about $1.6bn, while dividends are set to be dollar-linked and a US listing is floated within 3–4 years. Botswana Capital Markets Push: The Botswana Stock Exchange is pitching itself as a regional capital-raising hub and is in talks to secure a secondary listing for Dangote’s refinery, banking on Botswana’s stability and institutional liquidity. Electricity Lending Move: Fintech Optasia plans to launch electricity credit (“Extra Power”) via its Finergi acquisition, aiming to expand prepaid-meter lending as electrification accelerates. Transport Shock in Gaborone: BOCTA warns a proposed electric bus pilot could displace current public transport workers and cut government permit revenue unless existing operators are integrated. Beef Export Pressure: Botswana’s beef industry is still scrambling after foot-and-mouth disruptions closed EU fresh-beef zones, pushing a pivot to new markets across Africa and parts of Asia. Inflation Watch: Bank of Botswana forecasts inflation staying above target through early 2027 before easing, with fuel, transport and electricity costs still driving pressure.

Dangote Refinery IPO Momentum: Aliko Dangote told investors the $1.6bn refinery IPO is Africa’s biggest, promising strong returns and “dollar dividends,” with an eye on a future US listing. Botswana Capital Markets Push: The Botswana Stock Exchange is pitching itself as a regional gateway for institutional capital, in talks to secure a secondary listing of Dangote’s refinery. Inflation Watch: The Bank of Botswana expects inflation to stay above target through early 2027, driven by fuel, electricity and transport costs. Beef Trade Shock: Botswana’s fresh-beef export zones were suspended after foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks, forcing the Botswana Meat Commission to pivot to new markets. Transport Policy Tension: BOCTA and nightclub/bar groups oppose a proposed 24-hour economy and a Gaborone electric bus pilot, warning of job losses and revenue impacts. Mining/Policy Scrutiny: Questions swirl around Minerals and Energy Minister Bogolo Kenewendo amid unconfirmed claims of a DCEC probe. Cattle Numbers Down: Botswana’s cattle herd fell 6.1% to 1.64m head in the 2025 census. Finance Results: FNB Botswana reported a 12% profit rise to P2.117bn for FY ending June 2026, despite credit and funding pressures.

Renewables & energy investment: Botswana’s sunshine is drawing serious capital, with KP Energy powering up a plan to build renewable capacity toward a 5GW ambition, facilitated through BITC. Climate-smart farming: At the Africa Food Systems Forum in Kigali, officials pushed for scaling irrigation to cut rain-fed farming risk as El Niño threatens southern Africa harvests. Agribusiness resilience: Farmers are being urged to “learn from the best” to lift yields, with calls for stronger local and regional knowledge-sharing partnerships. Waste-to-value push: Botswana is moving toward a formal partnership with Zimbabwe’s Geo Pomona Waste Management to turn landfills into recycling centres and green-energy opportunities. Public accountability: A Gaborone workshop on performance contracts highlighted how stronger public administration and service delivery can improve outcomes for citizens. Health infrastructure: A Texas-based firm says it will build a 130-bed specialist hospital ecosystem near Gaborone, combining medical care, hospitality support and pharma manufacturing. Transport safety: Isuzu has issued a recall of more than 2,500 D-Max bakkies in South Africa (exported to Botswana among other markets) over a brake pedal pivot pin fault. Mining & metals sentiment: Copper prices eased on tariff worries, with Sandfire Resources’ Botswana-linked copper operations in focus.

Botswana–Zimbabwe Waste Deal: Botswana is moving toward a formal partnership with Harare-based Geo Pomona Waste Management to turn landfills into recycling centres and potential green-energy hubs, with Local Government Minister Ketlhalefile Motshegwa saying the model could also deepen SADC trade and investment. Health & Infrastructure Investment: A Texas-based firm says it will build a 130-bed specialist TEMCO Hospital Ecosystem near Gaborone’s airport, combining hospital care, a pharma manufacturing facility and a hospitality wing for families. Engineering & Skills Push: BIUST students pitched new ventures at a fellowship backed by MIT and the Botswana government, aiming to reduce reliance on diamonds through manufacturing, clean energy, biotech and mining-linked solutions. Local Business & Jobs: Korea Eximbank met Botswana’s vice president to discuss development financing and support for Korean firms, including training and AI/digital capacity projects. Transport Safety Watch: Botswana consumers may be affected by South Africa’s Isuzu D-Max recall of 2,500+ bakkies over a brake pedal pivot pin fault, with exports including Botswana. Sports (Botswana link): Letsile Tebogo featured in sprint coverage from the World Athletics Ultimate Championship in Budapest, where he finished second in the men’s 200m behind Kenny Bednarek.

Healthcare & ICT Boost (Lesotho): WHO and the Pandemic Fund handed Lesotho medical and ICT equipment worth about M2.5 million to speed early outbreak detection, including laptops, tablets, modems and statistical software alongside blood glucose monitors, stethoscopes and ECG machines. Telecom Pricing Pressure (Lesotho): Data Matrix reports the cheapest 30-day mobile data gigabyte in Lesotho fell to M32.75 in September 2026 from M42.00 in 2023, attributing the faster-than-inflation drop to contestable competition and Starlink’s growing constraint on the duopoly. Botswana Waste-to-Value Push: Botswana is moving toward a formal partnership with Zimbabwe’s Geo Pomona Waste Management to turn landfills into recycling centres and potential green energy hubs, with local authorities expected to play a key role. Private Hospital Investment (Gaborone): A Texas-based private equity firm plans a TEMCO Hospital Ecosystem near Sir Seretse Khama International Airport, combining a 130-bed specialist hospital with medical hospitality and a pharmaceutical manufacturing facility. Clean Tech & Circular Economy (Botswana link): In Cape Town’s Afri GreenPitch Challenge, Botswana’s Mattie’s Success won runner-up for converting banana stem waste into biodegradable hair braiding fibre, highlighting regional innovation beyond mining. Engineering Recognition (Regional): Zutari picked up multiple wins at the SAICE National Awards, including awards tied to bridge and mine flood risk work—useful signal for Botswana’s infrastructure and engineering ecosystem.

Waste & Energy Transition: Botswana is moving toward a formal partnership with Zimbabwe’s Geo Pomona Waste Management to turn landfills into recycling centres and potential green-energy and jobs opportunities, with the Local Government minister touring the Harare firm’s operations. Healthcare Investment: A Texas-based private equity group says it will build the TEMCO Hospital Ecosystem near Gaborone’s airport—an integrated specialist hospital plus hospitality and pharmaceutical manufacturing—aimed at tackling specialist-care shortages. Engineering & Infrastructure Talent: Zutari picked up major wins at the 2026 SAICE National Awards, including technical excellence awards for projects tied to bridges and mine flood risk, plus Young Engineer recognition. Innovation & Entrepreneurship: BIUST students pitched ventures backed by MIT and government, targeting issues like unreliable power, unsafe water and agricultural inefficiency—pushing Botswana beyond a diamond-only economy. Trade & Regional Business: Korea Eximbank met Botswana’s vice president and other African finance officials to discuss development financing and how Korean firms can plug into projects across the continent. Public Safety: Isuzu issued a recall affecting D-Max bakkies sold across multiple African countries, including Botswana, over a potential brake pedal fault. Business & Society: Bulawayo’s SEZ status debate is back, with calls to extend it across the whole city to revive downstream steel manufacturing.

Waste & Green Energy Push: Botswana plans to partner with Zimbabwe’s Geo Pomona Waste Management to turn landfills into recycling centres and green energy hubs, with the Local Government minister touring the firm’s facilities and linking the move to climate action and local authority landfill management. Healthcare Investment: A Texas-based private equity group says it will build a P2 billion, 130-bed specialist hospital ecosystem near Gaborone’s airport, combining specialist care, medical hospitality and a pharmaceutical manufacturing facility. Engineering & Skills Recognition: Zutari picked up major wins at the 2026 SAICE National Awards, including technical excellence awards for bridge and mine flood risk work, plus Young Engineer of the Year. Innovation for Diversification: BIUST student entrepreneurs pitched ventures at a fellowship backed by MIT and Botswana’s government, targeting problems like unreliable electricity, unsafe water and agricultural inefficiency. Public Accountability & Delivery: A Gaborone UN-ECA workshop focused on performance contracts and how public administration capacity shapes service delivery and development outcomes.

Health Infrastructure Investment: A Texas-based private equity firm says it will build a P2 billion, 130-bed specialist hospital ecosystem on the outskirts of Gaborone near the airport, combining hospital services, a medical hospitality wing and a pharmaceutical manufacturing facility. Waste-to-Energy Push: Botswana is moving toward a formal partnership with Zimbabwe’s Geo Pomona Waste Management to turn landfills into recycling centres and sources of green energy, with local authorities expected to play a key role. Public Service Reform: A UN-ECA workshop in Gaborone focused on improving public accountability and service delivery through performance contracts, highlighting how stronger public administration underpins development. Engineering & Skills Recognition: Zutari picked up major wins at the 2026 SAICE National Awards, including technical excellence honours for projects linked to bridges and mine flood risk, plus a young engineer award. Education & Entrepreneurship: BIUST students pitched ventures at a fellowship backed by MIT and the Botswana government, aiming to tackle issues like unreliable electricity, unsafe water and agricultural inefficiency. Trade & Finance Diplomacy: Korea Eximbank met Botswana’s vice president and finance officials from 10 African countries to discuss development projects and ways to help Korean firms enter African markets. Conservation Education: Wilderness and partners renewed an environmental education programme at Tshwaragano Primary School, using hands-on learning to deepen understanding of the Okavango Delta.

Botswana–Korea Investment Push: Botswana’s vice president Ndaba Gaolathe told Korean firms to “test us” as the country courts manufacturing, energy and AI investment, targeting $37bn in projects through 2036 and urging engineers and capital to scale new growth beyond diamonds. Engineering & Mining Finance: Zutari picked up major wins at the 2026 SAICE National Awards, including work tied to the Jwaneng Underground Mine flood risk assessment, while Africa Finance Corporation plans a strong presence at African Mining Week to back mineral infrastructure and value addition. AfCFTA Trade Speed-Up: Nigeria cut AfCFTA Certificate of Origin processing to 24 hours via digitisation, citing a Nigeria–Botswana trade mission that landed an immediate 6,000 T-shirt order—an example of how faster paperwork can unlock intra-African sales. Labour Market Pressure: The Bank of Botswana warns unemployment remains high as job creation lags labour-force growth, with youth unemployment at 28.9% in 2024/25. Agriculture Risk From El Niño: Forecasts point to drier-than-average conditions for Botswana’s Oct–Dec planting window, raising the odds of delayed planting and crop losses. Local Business & Skills: Injini is funding an $125,000 AI venture builder for early-stage EdTech teams across Southern Africa, including Botswana, aiming to move ideas to market-ready products.

Labour & Public Services: Botswana unions are escalating pressure over President Duma Boko’s “African Hero” school-and-clinic rollout, demanding full disclosure of the partnership’s finances, legal terms, ownership, jobs and any future liabilities. Infrastructure & Education: The Botswana Congress Party says the schools-and-clinics programme linked to Zunaid Moti could commit the state to over P20bn, while Parliament’s Public Accounts Committee weighs whether to summon officials for answers. Investment & Industry Push: Botswana’s vice president Ndaba Gaolathe tells Korean investors to “test us” as the country targets $37bn in investment through 2036, aiming to build manufacturing, energy and AI capacity beyond diamonds. Trade Facilitation: Nigeria cuts AfCFTA Certificate of Origin processing to 24 hours via digitisation, citing a Botswana trade mission that secured an immediate 6,000 T-shirt order. Agriculture Risk: El Niño-linked forecasts warn Botswana’s Oct–Dec planting window could be drier than average, raising the odds of delayed planting and crop losses. Conservation & Environment: Wilderness and BIHL Trust expand hands-on environmental education in Gaborone through Eco-Clubs, teacher training and conservation projects. Transport Safety: A 75-seater bus overturns on Zimbabwe’s Bulawayo–Victoria Falls road, renewing calls for urgent upgrades to a deteriorating highway. Consumer & Mobility: Isuzu recalls D-Max bakkies across multiple African markets, including Botswana, over a potential brake pedal fault. Business & Tourism: Fairground Holdings CEO Gabaraane exits after eight years, citing progress on a masterplan for Botswana’s MICE, hospitality and tourism growth. Innovation: Botswana’s Mattie’s Success reaches runner-up status at Cape Town’s Afri GreenPitch, highlighting local circular-economy and education-linked startup momentum.