AGP Executive Report

Botswana Tax Overhaul: Corporate income tax rises from 22% to 24.5% from July 1, 2026, while some manufacturing firms keep a 15% concessional rate only for profits tied to manufacturing under Manufacturing Development Approval Orders. Capital Markets Push: The Botswana Stock Exchange unveiled its “10x by 2030” plan to grow capital markets tenfold by 2030, aiming for deeper liquidity, broader ownership and more long-term funding beyond diamonds. Mining & Investment: Mining FDI in Botswana hit P47.8 billion in 2024, with the UK the top investor, while manufacturing FDI fell sharply year-on-year. Livestock Financing Fix: BSE says the Botswana Mercantile Exchange (BMX) could help the beef sector manage FMD shocks via warehouse receipt collateral, reducing financing bottlenecks. FMD Legal Fight: Two major feedlot operators (J S Beef and Primefast) have sued government over veterinary disease control orders, arguing restrictions could collapse their businesses. Payments Upgrade: Absa Pay is accelerating Botswana’s shift to secure contactless smartphone and smartwatch payments using virtual card technology. Retail & Energy Updates: Sefalana reported record revenue but weaker profits; Tlou Energy logged its first revenue milestone as Lesedi gas-to-power work continues. Regional Trade Facilitation: SADC is moving to simplify border procedures under a Simplified Trade Regime to cut costs for small-scale traders, including Botswana. Cross-border Infrastructure: A Lesotho-Botswana water transfer project management office opened in Maseru, signalling progress on regional water security planning.

SADC Trade Facilitation: Eswatini and 15 SADC partners are pushing to simplify border procedures under the SADC Simplified Trade Regime, aiming to cut costs and ease informal cross-border commerce by relaxing certificate-of-origin rules and tackling non-tariff barriers. Retail & Consumer Demand: Sefalana says it’s cautiously optimistic despite weaker consumer spending, reporting record revenue of P12bn (+9%) but a sharp drop in EBITA (-39%) and profit before tax (-40%) for the year to 26 April 2026. Gas-to-Power Progress: Tlou Energy reports its first revenue milestone as the Kala Data Centre completes a full quarter of continuous operation, while Lesedi gas production testing and well optimisation continue amid funding challenges. Property & Jobs: Zana Junction Mall in Selebi Phikwe breaks ground, with developers targeting a September 2027 opening for the P200m-plus retail project backed by major local shareholders. Aviation Reliability: Parliament hears Air Botswana’s fleet renewal hasn’t delivered the promised turnaround, with only three of six aircraft operational and disruptions continuing. Roads & Courts: The Court of Appeal lifts orders that froze funds and stalled the Modipane-Mabalane Road after procedural and disclosure failures. Regional Water Infrastructure: A Lesotho-Botswana water transfer project office opens in Maseru as ORASECOM and both governments advance planning for major water security cooperation. Beef Trade Impact: Botswana’s FMD-related quota shortfall is reported to have helped Namibia unlock about N$100m in additional Norwegian beef quota earnings. Immigration Enforcement: Botswana raids expose alleged misuse of farm worker permits to place expatriates in unrelated jobs, prompting tighter checks and prosecutions. Mining Advisory: Cobre Limited appoints Rothschild & Co as strategic adviser to refine strategy and capital markets positioning across its Botswana-linked copper portfolio.

Retail & jobs: Construction has started on the P200m+ Zana Junction Mall in Selebi-Phikwe, with developers targeting a September 2027 opening and citing local employment and economic renewal. Diamond market & capital markets: An opinion piece warns that Anglo American’s likely exit from the Botswana Stock Exchange after De Beers restructuring could expose weaknesses in Botswana’s financial system and shift pressure onto pension funds to invest locally. Beef trade shock: Botswana’s FMD-related restrictions have forced it to surrender part of a premium Norwegian beef quota, with Namibia gaining an estimated N$100m as it taps unused quota under SACU-EFTA arrangements. Air Botswana reliability: Parliament hears only three of Air Botswana’s six aircraft are operational after P355.9m fleet renewal, leaving disruptions and losses unresolved. Road finance & courts: The Court of Appeal lifted orders that froze funds and stalled the Modipane–Mabalane Road after procedural and disclosure failures in an urgent ex parte application. Labour permits crackdown: Government raids found farm worker permits allegedly used to place expatriates in unrelated jobs, prompting tighter enforcement and prosecutions. Water security planning: ORASECOM has opened a Lesotho-Botswana water transfer project office in Maseru, pushing regional cooperation on long-term water supply. Regional integration & trade: India and South Africa are reviving talks on a Preferential Trade Agreement covering SACU, with minerals, pharma and manufacturing flagged. Agriculture exports: Namibia’s trade deficit widened to N$5.5bn in June, while live cattle and sheep export growth is highlighted in regional reporting.

Water Infrastructure: A Lesotho-Botswana Water Transfer Project Management Office has opened in Maseru under ORASECOM, aiming to strengthen regional water security and create jobs and business opportunities. Livestock Exports: Namibia reports strong growth in live cattle and sheep exports in the first half of 2026, with export-approved abattoirs also seeing higher throughput—good news for Southern Africa’s meat value chain. Trade & Regional Competition: Namibia’s trade deficit widened to N$5.5 billion in June as imports hit a record N$18.3 billion, even as mining exports stayed dominant and food still delivered a N$743 million surplus. Critical Minerals Push: The US announced US$3 billion in government-backed critical minerals investments, including rare earths and battery projects, with Africa flagged as a key supply partner. Beef Market Fallout: Botswana’s FMD-related restrictions are said to have forced it to surrender a premium Norwegian beef quota worth about P75 million to Namibia. Aviation & Costs: Air Botswana’s fleet renewal programme has left only three of six aircraft operational, with Parliament hearing persistent disruptions and losses. Immigration Enforcement: Government raids exposed alleged misuse of farm worker permits to place expatriates in unrelated jobs, prompting tighter checks. Tourism & Agribusiness: The Okavango International Beef & Fish Festival is set for September 25–26 in Shakawe, positioning local producers and culture as a business and tourism draw.

Trade & Industry: Namibia’s trade deficit widened sharply to N$5.5 billion in June as imports hit a record N$18.3 billion, while exports rose to N$12.9 billion; mining products led exports, and China stayed the biggest destination while South Africa remained the top import source. Agribusiness & Trade: Botswana’s foot-and-mouth disease fallout is costing it premium beef access, with Namibia securing extra SACU-EFTA Norway-bound quota worth about N$100 million after Botswana couldn’t fully use its allocation. Labour & Immigration Enforcement: Botswana is tightening scrutiny after raids found farm worker permits being used to place expatriates in unrelated jobs, with investigations targeting mining and power projects. Regional Connectivity: Court action has cleared the way for the Modipane-Mabalane Road after procedural failures in an earlier bid to freeze funds. Energy & Power Context: South Africa’s electricity generation fell 8.1% year-on-year in June for the 13th straight decline, adding pressure to regional supply planning. Tourism & Value Chains: The Okavango is set to launch an Okavango International Beef & Fish Festival in Shakawe, aiming to spotlight agribusiness and culinary tourism beyond wildlife.

Beef Trade Shock: Botswana’s foot-and-mouth disease fallout has cost the country a premium Norwegian beef quota worth about P75 million, with Namibia securing an extra 344,766kg under the SACU-EFTA quota-sharing deal. Immigration Enforcement: Labour and Home Affairs raids have exposed alleged misuse of farm worker permits to place expatriates in unrelated jobs, prompting tighter checks and prosecutions. Aviation Strain: Air Botswana’s P355.9m fleet renewal is underperforming, with only three of six aircraft operational and ongoing disruptions and losses. Road Project Legal Win: The Court of Appeal lifted orders freezing funds for the Modipane-Mabalane Road after finding procedural and disclosure failures in an urgent ex parte application. Skills and Defence Training: President Mnangagwa capped 216 graduands at ZNDU’s seventh graduation, including engineering and defence/security studies, with allied participants from Botswana and other countries. Tourism & Agribusiness Push: The Okavango International Beef & Fish Festival is set for September 25–26 in Shakawe, aiming to spotlight local producers and culinary tourism. Community Infrastructure Momentum: Zimbabwe’s Tsholotsho Road Rehabilitation Initiative highlights community-led works, with fuel support donated ahead of launch.

Okavango Tourism & Agribusiness: Botswana’s Okavango gets a people-first spotlight with the “Batho Ba Metsi” documentary premiere in Gaborone, while the Okavango International Beef & Fish Festival is set for Sept 25–26 in Shakawe, aiming to turn local cuisine, culture and agribusiness into a bigger tourism draw. Mining & Local Enterprise: Khoemacau Copper Mine and Absa Bank Botswana partner to back citizen-owned SMEs, pushing mining-linked value creation beyond extraction. Energy & Power Reliability: South Africa’s electricity generation fell 8.1% in June and marked a 13th straight year of decline, a reminder of the regional power challenge that affects business planning. Regional Integration & Industry Push: SADC’s Industrial Week wrapped in Durban with a push to accelerate industrialisation through deeper regional value chains and investment. Transport & Connectivity: Emirates and South African Airways expanded their codeshare, adding nine destinations including Gaborone, boosting travel links for business and tourism. Culture & Creative Economy: Botswana’s Mophato Dance Theatre marks 15 years with “Chaba” in September, and BOMU has elected its first woman union president, Gloria Dzwikiti, as artists face piracy and shifting digital economics.

SADC Summit Push: SADC leaders meet in Durban as South Africa takes over the 2026/27 chair, with a focus on accelerating industrialisation, infrastructure, food security and regional integration. Electricity Strain: South Africa’s electricity generation fell 8.1% in June for the 13th straight year, with weaker distribution and shifting inflows/outflows—another reminder of power reliability pressures across the region. Regional Industrialisation Agenda: SADC’s Industrial Week in Durban ends with a declaration urging deeper integration and stronger value chains to move from raw exports to competitive manufacturing. Trans-Kalahari Railway Moves to Execution: Botswana and Namibia complete the feasibility study for the N$264b Trans-Kalahari Railway, with next steps now centred on financing, procurement and community engagement. Mining-to-SME Finance: Khoemacau Copper and Absa Bank Botswana partner to empower citizen-owned SMEs, aiming to widen access to mining-linked opportunities. Energy Projects Shift to Delivery: Coverage highlights energy firms moving from funding rounds into drilling, construction and production campaigns, with the September quarter expected to test execution. Air Connectivity Boost: Emirates and South African Airways expand their codeshare, adding nine routes including Gaborone, Windhoek, Lusaka, Harare and Victoria Falls. Digital Safety for Rural Botswana: A village-to-village initiative tackles mobile money scams and cybercrime through practical community education. Botswana Economic Outlook Warning: The AfDB flags Botswana’s weak 2025 performance, citing diamond dependence and investment collapse as key risks. CJ Global Investment: CJ Global Express Group announces a US$890m programme across Zimbabwe and Botswana, including a five-star hotel project and 300+ jobs.

Heritage & Fashion: Botswana turned the National Museum into a runway with “Heritage Reimagined: Living Archives,” where Koki Kamala’s wearable textiles brought Tsodilo Hills, the Okavango Delta and Makgadikgadi Salt Pans to life. Music Industry Reform: BOMU has elected its first woman union president, Gloria Dzwikiti, but her focus is practical—tackling piracy, royalty problems and the business threat from AI. Energy & Manufacturing: Pace Digitek reported Q1 FY27 revenue up 51.3% to INR 555.4 crore and profit up 14.3%, while expanding BESS manufacturing capacity to 5 GWh. SME Finance Link: Khoemacau Copper Mining and Absa Bank Botswana partnered to empower citizen-owned SMEs through mining-linked opportunities. Film & Tourism Storytelling: “Batho Ba Metsi” premiered in Gaborone, spotlighting Okavango Delta communities and livelihoods in a fully Botswana-produced documentary. Regional Trade & Jobs: Botswana and Namibia completed the Trans-Kalahari Railway feasibility study, moving the N$264b project toward implementation and an estimated 10,000 jobs. Air Connectivity: Emirates and South African Airways expanded their codeshare, adding nine routes including Gaborone and Victoria Falls for smoother regional travel. Digital Safety: Village Digital Safety Botswana is spreading practical cybercrime awareness village-to-village after residents reported mobile money scams and impersonation fraud. Economy Watch: The AfDB says Botswana’s diamond dependence left it in contraction in 2025, with weak investment and external pressures dragging growth.

Regional Rail Push: Botswana and Namibia have completed the feasibility study for the Trans-Kalahari Railway, clearing the way for implementation of the N$264b, US$16bn corridor linking Botswana’s coal fields to Namibia’s Walvis Bay, with construction targeted for 2027 and an estimated 10,000 jobs in the first phase. Aviation & Trade Connectivity: Emirates and South African Airways expanded their codeshare, adding nine new routes and enabling reciprocal codeshare access that now includes Gaborone (Botswana) plus other regional cities, with single-ticket booking and through-checked baggage. Diamond Economy Pressure: The AfDB warns Botswana’s growth stayed weak in 2025, citing diamond dependence and collapsing investment, while De Beers rejects Botswana’s renewed claim of a P14bn unpaid tax liability amid rising opposition scrutiny. Digital Safety for Rural Communities: Botswana’s Village Digital Safety initiative is tackling mobile-money scams and phone fraud through village-to-village outreach and practical community discussions. Cybercrime Awareness: Communities are sounding the alarm on cybercrime, pushing for better protection and faster education as digital adoption grows. Local Development & Water: In Namibia’s Zambezi region, leaders call for urgent water pipeline extensions and basic services—an echo of the wider regional infrastructure needs tied to business and livelihoods.

Trans-Kalahari Railway: Botswana and Namibia have cleared a key feasibility-study hurdle for the US$16bn, 1,500km heavy-haul line linking Mmamabula to Walvis Bay, with construction targeted for 2027 and thousands of jobs expected. Codeshare Connectivity: Emirates and South African Airways expanded their reciprocal codeshare, adding nine destinations and including Gaborone in Botswana, boosting one-ticket travel across southern and central Africa. Digital Safety in Botswana: A village-to-village initiative is tackling mobile-money scams and cybercrime by getting rural communities to share real experiences and practical protection tips. De Beers Tax Dispute: De Beers has rejected renewed claims it owes Botswana P14bn in unpaid taxes as opposition pushes for clarity in Parliament. Water and Local Development Pressure (Namibia): Mayeyi leaders at Sangwali say communities are being left out of regional plans, calling for a village council and urgent pipeline extensions to restore water access. Competition and Property Deals (Botswana): Far Property has filed merger notifications with the Competition and Consumer Authority for two acquisitions at Forest Hill, as regulators review the transactions. Agribusiness Growth Story: A Botswana lucerne producer credits professionalism, financial discipline and compliance for rapid scaling and export readiness. El Niño Alert: Africa is urged to move from forecasts to action as a potentially severe El Niño event approaches, with drought and flood risks for food and livelihoods.

Trans-Kalahari Railway: CPCS Transcom has completed the US$16bn feasibility study for the 1,500km heavy-haul line linking Botswana’s Mmamabula coal belt to Namibia’s Port of Walvis Bay, clearing the way for construction to start in 2027 and targeting thousands of jobs across both countries. Diamond sector under pressure: De Beers has rejected Botswana’s renewed P14bn unpaid tax claim as opposition parties push for clarity in Parliament, while rough diamond output rebounded 88% in Q2 to 7.8m carats (with later-year production risks from planned maintenance). US trade relief for diamonds: The US has lifted a temporary 10% tariff on Botswana-origin imports, restoring duty-free access for qualifying exports under AGOA, though Botswana is urged to secure renewal before year-end. Mining expansion: Nova Africa Resources signed to acquire the assets of the long-defunct Mupane Gold Mine, aiming to restart operations pending approvals. Business financing push: Bank Gaborone and the Local Enterprise Authority signed a three-year MoA to improve SMME access to finance, training and mentorship. Consumer squeeze: Botswana small businesses report customers are spending less, forcing cuts in services and pricing pressure. Energy/tech payments: Absa MobiTap is expanding mobile POS payments for merchants, targeting easier, more secure digital transactions.

Digital Economy Benchmark: A new JB.com study ranks South Africa as Africa’s most future-ready digital economy, citing a strong startup ecosystem, internet penetration above 78% and high human capital. Space Infrastructure Push: Africa’s space race is shifting from satellites to long-term national infrastructure, with 18 countries already launching or acquiring satellites and the sector projected to top $30bn by 2030. Regional Payments: Angola’s kwanza joins the SADC-RTGS system, deepening Southern Africa’s cross-border payments integration. El Niño Preparedness: African leaders are urged to move fast after warnings of a potentially historic El Niño, with major drought, flood and food-risk implications. Botswana Business & Finance: Bank Gaborone and the Local Enterprise Authority sign a three-year MoA to boost SMME financing and mentorship. Retail & Consumer Pressure: Sefalana posts record P12bn revenue but profit falls amid a tough diamond-linked economy. Diamond Trade Update: The US removes a temporary 10% tariff on Botswana-origin diamonds, restoring duty-free access under AGOA while renewal talks loom. Mining & Output: De Beers rough production rebounds in Q2, but planned maintenance at Orapa and Jwaneng may weigh on later-year output. Construction & Jobs: Botswana and Namibia face a December push to turn the Trans-Kalahari Railway from plans into an execution roadmap. Governance & Compliance: Botswana’s Trade Ministry reports rampant fronting in citizen-reserved businesses, while the Permanent Secretaries performance-contract debate turns on how “performance” should be measured. Consumer Spending Squeeze: Small businesses report customers cutting back on discretionary services, from salons to ride-hailing.

Sports & Tourism Investment: Botswana defended its decision to host the 2027 TAFISA World Congress (Oct 18–20), arguing the event is a strategic investment for economic diversification and positioning the country as a top international sport destination. Regional Rail Push: Namibia and Botswana are racing to turn the Trans-Kalahari Railway from plans into action, with a December deadline for a clear implementation roadmap covering financing, procurement and local participation. Diamond Sector Signals: The US removed a temporary 10% tariff on Botswana-origin diamonds, restoring duty-free access, while De Beers reported a Q2 rough production rebound but warned of output cuts later in 2026 amid weak demand and lab-grown competition. Local Business Pressure: Botswana consumers are tightening spending, hitting salons and ride-hailing operators as customers delay services and buy at-home alternatives. Mining & Jobs: Nova Africa Resources moved to revive Botswana’s Mupane Gold Mine by signing to acquire the defunct mine’s assets, while retrenchment notifications show 5,392 job losses across sectors since Jan 2024 to May 2026. SMME Finance: Bank Gaborone and the Local Enterprise Authority signed a three-year MoA to improve SMME access to finance through training, mentorship and tailored banking solutions. Trade Integrity: Botswana’s Trade Ministry flagged rampant fronting in citizen-reserved businesses, where locals hold licences but foreign nationals control operations for nominal fees.

Consumer Pressure on Small Business: Gaborone salon and ride-hailing operators say customers are spending less, with some clients cutting services at home and drivers seeing weaker demand. Diamond Trade Update: The US has lifted a temporary 10% tariff on Botswana-origin diamond imports, restoring duty-free access, though officials warn Botswana must push hard to renew AGOA before year-end. Debswana Output Watch: De Beers/Anglo American reports rough diamond production rebounded in Q2, but planned maintenance later in 2026 could weigh on output. Governance & Accountability: A debate is growing over Botswana’s proposed performance contracts for Permanent Secretaries—what “performance” should mean beyond administrative activity. Trade Integrity: Botswana’s Trade Ministry says it has uncovered rampant fronting in citizen-reserved businesses, where locals hold licences but foreign nationals control operations. Mining Labour Talks: Minerals and Energy Minister Bogolo Kenewendo met the Botswana Mine Workers Union, signalling a possible thaw after disputes over safety, representation and bargaining. Gold Mine Revival: Nova Africa Resources moved to acquire the assets of the long-defunct Mupane Gold Mine, pending approvals, aiming for jobs and local enterprise development. Digital Payments Push: Absa Botswana’s MobiTap is expanding smartphone-based merchant payments, targeting SMEs and financial inclusion with security controls. Retail Resilience: Sefalana hit record annual revenue of P12bn, but profits fell as the diamond-linked slowdown squeezed liquidity and demand. Base Metals Discovery: Blaze Minerals says it has identified promising copper-lead-zinc mineralisation at Krokodil Prospect in Botswana. Job Loss Signals: Over 700 companies filed retrenchment notices from Jan 2024 to May 2026, with 5,392 jobs lost across sectors including manufacturing and construction. Social Spending Warning: Finance Minister Ndaba Gaolathe cautioned that an extra P4.1bn annual social spending package could worsen deficits and debt. Rail Infrastructure: Botswana and Namibia are progressing on feasibility work for the Trans Kalahari Railway, aimed at boosting regional trade and connectivity.

Diamond Sector Watch: Botswana’s diamond outlook gets a boost as the US removes the extra import tariff on Botswana-origin natural diamonds, restoring zero tariff for qualifying rough and loose/polished stones—though the bigger threat from lab-grown diamonds remains. Mining & Markets: Debswana’s Q1 2026 diamond production rose 4.7% to 4.89 million carats, with a strong rebound at Orapa and a Bank of Botswana note that Debswana lifted its 2026 target by about 20% to 18 million carats. Trade & Exports: Primefast and JS Beef drag government to court, alleging it is blocking cattle and beef exports while the domestic market can’t absorb output. Agribusiness Innovation: Dibete is set as the first commercial hub for a commercial hemp rollout after NARDI trials confirmed the crop fits Botswana’s climate. Legal/Construction: Pro-Serve scores a Court of Appeal win in the Modipane-Mabalane Road dispute, overturning a High Court freeze on project funds. Regional Business Links: Bombo Investments partners the Africa Monologue Challenge to push intra-African trade under AfCFTA. Consumer/Transport: Toyota Urban Cruiser recalls reach Botswana via exported units, after a fuel-gauge defect could leave drivers without timely low-fuel warnings.